The Fed May Pause Rate Hikes But Asia Stays Strong


The Fed raised a quarter point rates hike in May FOMC meeting, and opened door to pause in tightening cycle. The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, emphasized that the Fed remains data dependent, particularly with the sticky elevated inflation.

BEA Union Investment are upholding our view about the end is in sight for US rate-hike cycle and greater risk for US economic contraction, even though it could be mild. The market sentiment for a rate cut is high, with many anticipating a significant credit event by banks or recession in the second half of the year. In our view, a rate cut would help mitigate the impact of any such event. The next move of Fed will be influenced on the incoming economic data, including inflation, employment and upcoming debt ceiling challenge.  

On the contrary, Asia’s economy is relatively stable, interest rates of Asian countries have are approaching the peaks. We believe there is sufficient slack in Asia to absorb the growing economic without propping up consumer prices.